With the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the highly likely rate cut the market has been waiting for, investors keep adjusting their portfolios to prepared them for what’s coming. In the chart below, you can see the probability of 25 bps cut vs the probability of a 50 bps cut. After the inflation report on Wednesday, investors piled on the 25 bps camp and assigned only 14% chance of 50 bps. But yesterday, bets on 50 bps cut starting to piled up and now the odds are almost 50/50. Additionally, and most likely related, gold futures spiked up above 2600, a new all time high, and the 2 yr treasury came back to 3.58%, just 2 bps above Wednesday lows for the week. Will the Fed deliver a 50 bps cut to accelerate the pace before year end? What reasons will Powell communicate for a bigger cut?
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