The U.S. Bureau of labor statistics published yesterday the JOLTS (Job Openings and labor turnover survey) report. The number of job openings was 410,000 lighter than expected, and when compared to the unemployed (see chart below) the ratio is now 1.1, dangerously close to parity, which is still good, but half of what it was 2 years ago. With the DOGE cutting costs by reducing government employees and other companies like Walmart announcing layoffs, we can see an uptick on unemployment. Government employees that are expected to take the DOGE offer (20,000) may not show up in the unemployment numbers for some time as it appears they will be offered an 8 month compensation package, but they will show up around the summer. This Friday, the U.S. unemployment will be published, and the consensus points to a 4.1% rate. On the other side of the pond, Germany just published its unemployment numbers (6.2%) and they’re getting closer to the maximum experienced during the pandemic(6.4%). That is putting pressure on the ECB to cut rates, along with sluggish growth, despite true fact that inflation is ticking up.
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