The Friday the U.S. will publish the unemployment rate for the month of a February where is expected to stay unchanged at 4%. For most states, the balance between demand and supply of labour force might be stable. It will be interesting to see what the impact of DOGE and its deferred compensation program has had on the unemployment rate on Washington DC. Currently 40,000 government employees have accepted the program benefits, which cover them until September. On top of that, another 45,000 government employees have been fired. Furthermore, over the past four years, the federal government has hired over 1 million new employees. Given that the total federal civilian workforce stands at approximately 2.4 million, this means that nearly half (approximately 50%) of current federal employees were hired during this period. And it would appear as if this administration would like to freeze new engagements and unwind part of those recent hires as they are considered inneficient, and invest in technology to improve government services. As part of the Fed mandate, unemployment could be the data point that moves the Fed’s needle.
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