Trapped.

This week is loaded with important macro data: the EU released its GDP and inflation data tomorrow, where it will be important to see if inflation remains under control or if it’s trending up like in the U.S. On Wednesday, the FOMC committee for May will conclude, and the expectation is, of course, no move in rates. It is important to see what Jay Powell says about the growth of the U.S. economy and inflation. The Fed appears to be trapped in a potential stagflation scenario, where no matter what they do, they might break something: if they hike or maintain rates at these levels, economic growth may deteriorate further, bearing the risk of a recession; if they cut, inflation may accelerate further, affecting American consumption and the yield of U.S. treasuries, increasing the cost of debt. Are we in a lose-lose situation?

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