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Times of conflict

The world seems to be entering a period of conflict once again. As can be seen in the chart below, since 1400, there has been a cyclical component in the number of deaths caused by wars. Every 60-80 years, humans forget how good life is during peace and start fighting each other. Often, it coincides with economic disasters provoked by draughts, pandemics or any other natural phenomenon. And sometimes, it’s just human nature. As you can see as well, since #wwII the world has been reducing the number of deaths significantly, but unfortunately, the blue line - number of deaths by military conflicts since 1946 - is spiking up. Leaving aside the human toll, from the economic standpoint, regular economic activity tends to stall, deficits tend to go up, since wars are costly, and often, its associated with scarcity of goods which may be inflationary. Finally, conflict periods are associated with a changing world order.


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