Time to act?

For quite some time, the market dynamics have worked in reverse: bad economic news was good news because it forced the Fed to act injecting money or lowering rates. It would appear that now the tables have turned, and bad news is actually bad news, and investors are starting to realize that as the Fed looks for confirmation on inflation and unemployment to act, perhaps then, it would be too late to avoid a recession. Yesterday, non farm payrolls came lower than expected, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.3%, which is still quite low for historical standards, but shows a deterioration in the labor market. Mega cap results on Thursday weighted on indexes as well, particularly on the Nasdaq, that ended the week in correction territory (10% down from the peak). Odds for a 50 bps are going up for the September 17th FOMC meeting, but the odds of a recession are going up as well.

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