Today the chairman of the Federal Reserve, J Powell will give a speech at Jackson Hole about the state of the economy and perhaps (although not likely), a hint on what the Fed will do on the September meeting. As part of the show, some voting members of the FOMC have started to “leak” their opinions about what will happen. Philadelphia Fed, Patrick Harker mentioned he believes “a slow, methodical approach down is the right way to go” which was not well received by markets judging for yesterdays performance on equity and fixed income markets. In any event, if we look at the chart below, the last 3 years show a similar pattern: markets buy into Jackson Hole and let themselves go after the meeting. On top of that, being this one an election year, the attention will move towards elections in the following weeks, probably right after the September meeting.
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