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The election knot

Writer: Gustavo A Cano, CFA, FRMGustavo A Cano, CFA, FRM

With 16 days to Election Day, the race is still very tight although it seems to show a light tilt towards Trump. In the swing states (please see below), all polls are within the margin of error and are distributed fairly equally between both candidates. Experts consider Pensilvania to be the real battleground, and it appears to be turning red, according to polls, but the advantage is so thin, it’s not definitive. What happens if the election turns into a draw? The founding fathers thought about it and created a mechanism for resolving that issue: the current House of Representatives will be tasked with declaring the winner; and the 118th House has a republican majority, which will make Trump president. But before that happens, lawsuits will be thrown and recounts will be performed, so we might not know who’s the president until December. What would Putin, Xi or Iran do if they knew the US is “distracted” or surrounded by chaos?


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