A very important week for the markets begins today, as both US and UK PPI and CPI will be published. After a better than expected unemployment numbers in the US last week, a slight disappointment in inflation can bring yields (even) higher and delay Fed future actions in terms of rates. Interestingly, this week is also full of Fed members public speeches, probably to massage the market opinion on the numbers. The 10 year U.S. treasury yield is 4.78% this morning, up almost 25 bps from its close for 2024. Equities are down in pre-market, and oil is up 1.7% this morning, and almost $5 dollar since December 31st. It seems the year has started with the reflation trade in mind, impatiently waiting for the numbers this week.
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