Recession optimism

Many investors and the #federalreserve have gone from discounting a shallow recession to a soft landing, to currently, no recession at all. It is important to remember that recessions are declared by a committee and it’s always backward looking. But more importantly, and as you can see in the table below, historically it has taken around 2 years after the first #ratehike for a recession to appear and be declared. The first hike in this cycle happened on March 2022, so perhaps it’s still too early to declare victory. It’s also important to note that thanks to very low financing by corporations during #zirp and to goverment stimuli during and after #covid, the symptoms of a recession may be delayed.

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Chart Source: David Rosenberg