It is highly likely that the March inflation report will be remember as a key turning point not only for 2024, but perhaps for years to come. Unless there is a surprise that sends inflation down in the coming months, rate cut expectations for June and July have plummeted and now we’re looking at September as a potential date for the first rate cut. In the meantime, treasury yields are picking up, and the 10 year seems to be on its way back to 5%. This has implications for other asset classes valuations, and it has a direct impact on the cost of debt, that has surpassed $1.1Tn per year, above defense spending and on its way to $1.4Tn at the end of the year if the Fed is not able to lower rates.
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