Presidential election years tend to be slightly weaker than the rest until Election Day, when the uncertainty goes away. 2024 however, it’s being particularly strong, compared with both election and non election years. It’s up 9.6% YTD which is more than double the typical pattern. It’s been fueled in part by the expectation that the Fed will stimulate the economy by lowering official rates and a concentrated bet on the tech sector. Notice that not only the performance has been stronger, but the volatility has been much lower than the normal pattern. Earnings season has began for the first quarter of the year, and we will see not only the quantitative part of the results, but the guidance and risks the C-suite sees for the rest of the year.
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