If you have any doubts about how globalized the world is and how synchronized we operate in economic terms, the chart below shows how central bankers act in unison, and as a consequence, with minor exceptions, economic booms and busts tend to happen at the same time. The big question these days is what will happen to global monetary policy if the Fed takes a pause in January, since it seems to be the anchor for every central banker in the world. The key might be in smaller central banks such as Switzerland, who started this cycle and New Zealand, who tend to think more independently and might provide some visibility into what’s ahead. New year, new policy?
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