The Jobs report yesterday was quite interesting. The headline number was good, adding 275k last month, but the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%, which is the highest since since February 2022. And the details have mixed readings: compared to Feb ‘23, the economy added 921k part time jobs, and lost 285k full time jobs, which is not a sign of strength. But perhaps more importantly in an election year, more foreign born workers (no voting rights) were added to the workforce than national born (voting rights), as you can see on the chart below. The quality of one of the key measures of economic strengh, and a key input for the Fed’s decision is deteriorating. That will weight on November 5th.
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