The chart below shows the maturity wall for #commercialrealestate. Over the next 2.5 years, $1.4Tn of debt will need to be refinanced (or repaid), on some instances at doubled interest rates. #banks and #cmbs own the majority of that debt. On top of that, about $3Tn of #investmentgrade and #highyield debt will mature in the same period of time. There are going to be losses that will need to be absorbed by a small number of players. And there will be a liquidty crunch preceding those losses, if history repeats itself. Pension plans will start dumping what they can sell (not what they want to sell) and the rinse cycle will begin.
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