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Market prediction

With just a few days to Election Day, Trump and the republican party are taking a thin but growing lead. National polls are giving an advantage to Trump for the first time since Biden drop out of the race and the market is rotating towards the scenario where Trump becomes president again. In general, markets do favor a republican candidate in the understanding that taxes will not be increased, but in this case, with the growing deficit the U.S. economy is running, it’s not clear wether that would be the best idea. Having said that, if you look at the chart below, you can see how the basket of stocks that are supposed to benefit from a republican win are outperforming the ones benefiting from a Democrat win by a growing margin. The markets are predicting a winner before Nov 5th.


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Chart source: Bianco Research



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