Inflation for the month of August will be published today. Absent any surprises to the upside, the Fed will lower rates next week. If the number is really low vs expectations (2.6%), investors will push for a 50 bps cut, otherwise we should expect a 25 bps cut and a message of data dependency going forward. The 2 year Treasury, one of the best leading indicators for Fed funds, is already discounting more that 120 bps of rate cuts. Inflation continues to be very important for the economic well being of the U.S.; if you look at the chart below, small businesses still consider inflation the most important problem, and they are responsible for 46% of the private employment in the US. With a good inflation report, the Fed might be able to kill two birds with one stone.
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