On Thursday, central bankers and a selected group of economists, will meet at Jackson Hole in Wyoming. The fun fact about it is that the place was selected in the 80’s by Fed chairman Paul Volcker because he liked fly fishing. This year’s theme will be “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.” If we read between the lines, perhaps what that title means is: we’re going to start cutting rates, and we want everybody to be aware and prepared, as we may face an economic slowdown of certain degree and we’re not sure interest rates will suffice to stop the bleeding. Chairman Powell will probably leave the meeting with a consensus and a plan to act on rates, and although we will need to wait till September to see the outcome, he will provide a watered down speech about his views on the economy and perhaps some Fed members will provide hints through speeches about the conclusions of the meeting. The stage is being set.
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