Inflation might be picking up without making too much noise. The Atlanta FED is projecting a PCE of 3.6% and this could derail the plan to cut rates as soon as March. One of the reasons is the cost of moving goods around the world. The world container index, shown below, just spiked vertically due to problems on the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, and the drought in Panama. Although new alternatives have appeared, such as the dry canal in Tehuantepec, Mexico, the routes have not changed enough to smooth the cost of transportation. Next, the Fed will tell us on Wednesday whether this is a factor they are monitoring, and what potential impact may have on the economy. Then Feb 13th, where we’ll get the CPi for January, and then the March FOMC meeting, the one everyone is expecting to understand the Fed’s position on rates.
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