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Hubris

Writer: Gustavo A Cano, CFA, FRMGustavo A Cano, CFA, FRM

U.S. equities continue to experience outflows, particularly in the large cap, growth style space. After years of U.S. exceptionalism, high valuations with high levels of government debt and big deficits are weighing on the U.S. equity indices. The chart below shows the opportunity for the U.S. large cap growth nemesis: small cap value stocks from anywhere but the US. This bucket has been avoided for 15 years, but it may be posed to receive flows from investors getting out of the crowded Large Cap growth trade. It happened between the two big crisis of the 21 first century, from 2000 to 2007. Perhaps this chart is warning us of a market crisis and how to defend portfolios from them. We might need a weak dollar low growth and fall in interest rates for that to happen.


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