Geopolitical risk is rising. Yesterday, in South Korea, the president declared martial law only to reverse it in a few hours and now faces charges for treason. The President of France faces destitution after the risk premium vs Germany spiked as France seems unable to control its deficit. In the Middle East, Syria continues its civil war with the objective to destitute Assad, which has implications for Russia. Russia decided to wait until Trump is inaugurated to see how to respond to the long range missile attack a couple of weeks ago. You would think that with this scenario in the world, markets will be volatile and fear will be high. Nope. The S&P500 is trading at all time highs, Germany’s Dax is at All time highs and VIX is at 13. Incredible resilience by the market. What is it that needs to happen for investors to look for a safe haven?
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