The U.S. consumer is incredibly bullish on the stock market. On the latest survey from the Conference board, which asks 3000 Americans about how the feel about thr stock market, 56.4% believe the market will be higher over the next 12 months. As you can see below, that is the highest reading since it began in May 1987, almost 40 years ago, and too close to 2 standard deviations from the mean. This can be taken as a contrarian indicator, since retail investors tend to max optimism near market tops, but it will appear that they are betting on the continuation of the so called U.S. Exceptionalism, supported by a new administration that will reduce regulations and tech innovations to increase economic growth. How much of that is already priced in? After a 50% increase in the S&P 500, and 77% for the Nasdaq over the last 2 years, with stretched valuations, can the market pull another exceptional year?
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