First Inflation report of 2023

Today is CPI day. Consensus now expects monthly inflation to decrease from prior month (-0.1%). That means YOY inflation will be below 7% for the first time since November 2021. If monthly inflation continues to decrease by 0.1% every month, we will reach 2% by April/May of this year and the #fed may claim victory. However, It may be short lived if the economy enters into a recession. And that seems to be the path the market is discounting, since consensus expects the fed to start cutting rates also this year.

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Source: Bespoke investmemt group