Europe takes the (rate cut) lead

The FOMC meeting for the month of May starts today, and tomorrow Jay Powell will announce the Fed’s decision on rates (no change expected) and the committee’s view on the economy, with emphasis on inflation, growth and unemployment. The latest data on inflation and growth have not been encouraging, so it will be difficult for him to paint a rosy picture. Coincidentally, the EU published today inflation and GDP numbers: headline inflation and GDP growth came in line with expectations, but core inflation (ex food and energy) was slightly stronger than expected at 2.7% as you can see below. Progress is undeniable, and rate cuts expectations for June remain intact for the EU, however, one wonders wether officials on central banks at both side of the Atlantic are thinking about a potential resurgence on inflation, particularly in the context of lower growth.

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