As central banks drain the liquidity they provided during the QE years, money supply indicators are confirming there is less money in circulation, which tipycally has dire implications for economic activity. That is the case of the U.S. and as you can see below, of Europe. Narratives in the market about the dollar demise are starting to change to point towards Euro demise: the #ukraineconflict, the energy supply disruption and illegal immigration problems in the periphery are weighting on the well being of the EU. The share of euro payments on the #swift platform has dropped from 38% at the beggining of 2023 to 23% today. The euro has weakened vs the U.S. dollar from 1.12 to 1.05 in less than 2 months, even after the strong dollar crowded trade narrative at the beggining of the year. Bilateral transactions among China-Russia-India countries are taking the spotlight from the Euro.
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