Less than three weeks to Election Day and polls still show a very tight race for the White House. However, Polymarket polls just showed the probability of a Republican sweep (White House +Senate+House of Representatives) up to 42% vs the probability of a Dem sweep at 15%. If this projections were to be fulfilled, history tells us (please see chart below) that markets will be delighted with that result both in 2 years (mid terms) and 4 years, as this results are only second to a Dem win in the White House and a hung Congress. The other piece of good news from the chart below is that in a presidential cycle (4 years) it doesn’t really matter that much what combination of White House and Congress we have, as market returns are more or less the same. In the end, if government does not intervene too much, markets will find their way.
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