Crossroads

We’re at a crossroads: the U.S. equity market is taken a breather after the liberation day shock, while the Trump administration continues its arm wrestle with China using tariffs and counter tariffs. The U.S. dollar index is below 100, which is an uncomfortable place to be when you’re preaching a strong dollar policy, but China is allegedly selling Treasuries and the Buck to swap it for gold. Europe’s honeymoon with rotation out of the U.S. is losing steam, as it is trapped between tariffs with the U.S., Ukraine and China. To add to the list of worries, we now have a death cross on the S&P500 (see below). For those who swear by technical analysis, it’s a ominous sign that we’re up to no good. And that coincides with 1Q corporate results, where AI algos will pick up all the mentions to tariffs and uncertainty CEOs and CFOs will discuss during analysts calls.

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