Tomorrow the U.S. will elect a new president and on Thursday the FOMC will meet and will likely lower the Fed funds rate by 25 bps. The odds discounted by futures show almost certainty. And for the December 18th meeting, the probability of another 25 bps cut is 78%. However, as the Economist puts it, “An economy with an unemployment of 4% and a per-person GDP of $85,000 does not have to be made great again; it is great”. If that is the case, why is the Fed cutting rates with a sense of urgency? Perhaps the Fed is looking at the labor market and doesn’t like what it sees. Perhaps companies are waiting for the elections to conclude to reduce headcount. Or maybe the Fed is looking into the Comercial Real Estate sector, and how stressed it is. However te case, the Fed seems determined to act to avoid a recession, even if it implies to start a new wave of inflation. Equities are on waiting mode and Treasuries look ready to act as safe haven in case the week concludes without a clear winner.
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