The US economy added 254,000 jobs last month, increasing from 159,000 in August. Consequently, the unemployment rate went down from 4.2% to 4.1%. After suspicious recent reports, this one has been particularly scrutinized due to its proximity to the elections. Democrats will use it to demonstrate the strength of the U.S. economy under their term, and the Fed will use it to support the decision of lowering rates at a slower pace. Markets have adjusted the odds of a 50 bps rate cut to just 10% in November. But perhaps the real action continues to be outside the U.S., both in the Middle East, with the potential escalation of the conflict between Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah-Iran, and in Asia, with the Chinese fiscal stimuli that has pushed the market up 24% over the last 10 days.
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