We have probably assisted to the shortest trade war ever. 48 hours after tariffs were enacted against Mexican and Canadian products, they have been paused after both leaders agreed to militarize their respective borders with the U.S. in order to eliminate the fentanyl contraband. We’ll see what happens in March 3rd, but it seems that the tariffs were never about a trade war, but a negotiating tactic. It also seems that President Trump chose carefully the order of the negotiating parties: first with Mexico, perhaps the easiest, then Canada, after making public the deal with Mexico, and third China, the toughest one, where he will try to reduce the trade deficit and perhaps reach an agreement about AI, cars, or else. As a consequence of the “deals”, currencies strengthened to their original levels prior to the tariffs, including crypto, and someone made a lot of money in 48 hours. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio was also busy in Panama, where he reached a deal to cancel the belt and road initiative with China, and to negotiate zero costs for the U.S. navy when passing through the Canal. On the domestic front, the DOGE has been putting pressure on USAID, an organization that was allegedly making some suspicious payments, and it continues to audit the current government structure to save $1tn to taxpayers.
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