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founder021

Jul 7, 20221 min read

Diverging expectations

Expectations for US official rates are diverging significantly between the #federalreserve and the market, through fed funds futures. At...

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founder021

Jul 3, 20221 min read

Something's Gotta give

As we start the second half of the year is interesting to see where the consensus is in terms of expectations for the S&P500 for year...

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founder021

Jun 23, 20221 min read

Bearish sentiment

As the S&P500 will likely deliver the worst 1st half performance since 1970, the investors #sentiment measured by AAII, is reaching very...

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founder021

Jun 21, 20221 min read

Recession behavior

The S&P500 has dropped a median of 24% during economic recessions in the U.S. since 1945. Although we still don’t have confirmation, the...

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founder021

Jun 18, 20221 min read

Widening Spreads

Slowly but firmly, #highyield spreads are going up. It reflects the tightening economic environment, investors risk apetite and liquidity...

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founder021

Jun 15, 20221 min read

Fed's dilemma

Today at 2 pm EST, the #federalreserve will announce its decision on interest rates. Big banks forecasts are split between 50 and 75 bps...

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founder021

Jun 3, 20221 min read

Alternative liquidity window

While the #federalreserve has offically started its balance sheet reduction ln June 1st, with the objective of decreasing it by $3Tn over...

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founder021

Jun 2, 20221 min read

Treasury trap

27% of total bank assets in the US are in #treasuries and #agency bonds. A 40 year maximum. The composition is extremely similar to the...

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founder021

Jun 1, 20221 min read

Spreads signal

The #federalreserve has a very difficult task: control #inflation without creating a #recession. To fulfill that task, the #fed monitors...

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founder021

May 29, 20221 min read

Buyer of last resort

As we approach the #FOMC meeting on June 14-15th, and await the #ratehike decision, it’s also very important to track the #Fed balance...

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founder021

May 18, 20221 min read

Inflation worries

According to FiveThirtyEight, Americans biggest worry is #inflation. 65% of republicans and 42% of democrats list the increase in cost of...

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founder021

May 10, 20221 min read

Balanced stress

Balanced portfolios, the backbone of the Weatlh management industry, are having a very bad year. Over the last 33 years, only during the...

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